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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts believe the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant division ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, political observers indicate that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.